The assumptions
Move the openings. Recut the race.
Expected opening-week domestic gross for the five unreleased films that can move the Top 10. Released films are reconditioned in-browser from fitted type priors and weekly increments.
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Progressive Monte Carlo · Web Worker
The standings
Player outcomes
Sole means alone in first. Win / tie includes shared first. Score bands use the same draws.
Winning worlds
Representative winning Top 10s
For each player, an actual winning draw nearest the consensus ranking under rank distance—not a dollar-space medoid.
The field
Labor Day forecast
Median season gross, 5–95% interval, and odds of landing in the final Top 10.
The shape of the race
Rank probability
The competitive slice includes films above 1% Top 10 probability or among the top 20 by median gross.